The latest Trump vs. Biden poll from IBD/TIPP finds former Vice President Joe Biden solidifying his lead over President Donald Trump with just nine days to go. The tracking poll’s two days of polling since the final debate indicate no movement toward Trump, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update shows.
The latest 2020 election poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 7.2 points, 51.6%-44.4%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 1.6%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8%.
“Our data do not support any gain for Trump from the debate,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, IBD’s polling partner. The IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll covers five days of interviews, including three before Thursday night’s presidential debate.
2020 Presidential Poll Trend: Four-Way Race
Biden’s 7.2-point lead is his largest in the past 10 days of the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll. The race’s tightest point came on Tuesday, Oct. 20, when Trump trailed by just 2.3 points. Biden’s widest lead, 8.6 points, came on Oct. 13.
Trump’s support has fallen by 1.6 points since cresting at 46%, right below his 2016 vote share, on Oct. 21. Biden’s support has bounced 3.5 points since his low-water mark of 48.1% on Oct. 20.
Amid the ups and downs in the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll, some key features of the race that favor the Democrat have remained consistent: Biden’s lead in the suburbs has remained solid; Trump has lost a significant share of his 2016 voters; and Biden holds a clear advantage among those who voted for a third party or didn’t vote in 2016.
For more details, check out the IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll page.
Head-To-Head Trump Vs Biden Poll
In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 6.8 points, 51.3%-44.5%.
Biden’s head-to-head lead had narrowed to just 1.8 points on Wednesday, his smallest lead to date. His widest lead, 10.4 points, came on Oct. 12.
2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown
Joe Biden’s lead among likely independent voters widened to 6 points, 49% to 43%, in IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll update. The Democratic nominee’s lead among this swing group had narrowed to 2 points two days earlier, after previously reaching into double digits.
Meanwhile, Biden leads 95.5%-4% among Democrats, while Trump is having a harder time locking down GOP support. He leads 91%-5% among Republicans in the latest 2020 election poll.
2016 Voters In 2020 Election
The latest Trump vs. Biden poll shows the president continuing to have some trouble with wayward 2016 Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 7% say they now support Biden while 91% say they’ve decided to back Trump again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 3% support Trump, while 94% back the former vice president.
In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden has wide leads among 2016 third-party voters (60%-20%) and nonvoters (72%-22%). Nonvoters are expected to make up roughly 10% of the electorate.
Trump Vs Biden Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger
The latest Trump vs. Biden poll finds the Democrat gaining ground among both urban and rural voters.
Urban voters prefer Biden by a 34-point margin, while rural voters back Trump by a 18-point margin, the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds. Both margins are about 10 points better than Clinton’s 2016 results.
Yet suburban voters, who make up close to half of the electorate, could be the big difference this year. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 52% to 44%. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.
Biden’s 8-point lead among suburban voters, though still solid, matches his narrowest margin.
At least so far, suburban voters don’t appear to have been swayed by the blunt appeal Trump made on Oct. 13 while campaigning in Pennsylvania. “Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?”
Trump was referring to a fair-housing regulation adopted by President Obama’s administration and later rolled back by Trump. The rule altered criteria for awarding federal funds to overcome historic patterns of segregation.
2020 Election Poll: No Hint Of 2016 Surprise
In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.
IBD/TIPP’s latest Trump vs. Biden poll margin of +7.2 points for the Democrat makes it less of an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden has an 8.1-point lead.
The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has important contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Biden leads by 6 points among independents in the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll, while Trump carried the key swing group by 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.
Seniors and suburban voters helped lift Trump to victory in 2016. Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll shows the Democrat with a solid lead in the suburbs and tied with the president among seniors.
Thursday’s final presidential debate may have been the last real opportunity for Trump to shake up the race, and early indications suggest he fell short. The economy was hotly debated, with strong disagreements over the minimum wage and the future of fossil fuels. However, Trump’s effort to shift the focus of the race may struggle to gain traction amid the surge in coronavirus cases, including in key battleground states.
“We’re rounding the corner. It’s going away,” Trump said in Thursday’s debate, while Biden warned of a “dark winter” ahead.
2020 Election Early Voting Wild Card
The new IBD/TIPP presidential poll, taken over five days, shows that 34% of voters have already cast ballots, including 48% of Biden voters. That means there are fewer votes still in play than in a normal election. However, the unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.
Trump’s Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1%. If state polls are correct, Biden may be cutting into Trump’s 2016 advantage in red states like Texas and Ohio. That could make the popular vote even less of a predictor than it was in 2016. However, TIPP’s Mayur figures Trump needs to be within 3 points in the national popular vote total to have a shot at victory.
2020 Election Poll Demographics
IBD/TIPP’s latest Trump vs. Biden poll finds the two candidates tied among senior citizens at 48%. While Trump has erased Biden’s earlier advantage among seniors in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll, even a deadlock might be problematic for the president. Trump won handily among seniors in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.
Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44, 55%-40%, in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update. Biden has the edge among voters 45-64, 51%-45%.
The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men by just a single point, 49%-48%. That would be a gut punch, since Trump carried the group by 11 points in 2016.
Women favor the Democrat by 55%-40% in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update, matching Trump’s 15-point deficit among women in 2016.
White voters favor Trump by 10 points, 53%-43%, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds.
Black voters back Biden, 89.5%-6%, in today’s presidential poll update, just shy of Clinton’s 85-point margin in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump trails Biden among Hispanics, 25%-72.5% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. That’s slightly worse for Trump than in 2016, when he lost 28%-66% among Hispanic voters.
More data on the income, religion and education of voters in the Trump vs. Biden poll can be found at the main IBD/TIPP tracking poll page.
Trump Vs Biden Poll: Investors OK With The Democrat
So far, investors seem to have largely ignored Trump’s claims that Biden’s economic policies will be disastrous, which he repeated in the Thursday’s presidential debate. “If he gets in, you will have a Depression, the likes of which you’ve never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell, and it’ll be a very, very sad day for this country.”
Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, favor Biden, 49%-47%. The final 2016 IBD/TIPP presidential poll showed Trump winning the group, 48%-42%.
Among noninvestors, Biden leads by a 57%-40% margin.
Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to be warming to a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet this month’s stock market rally has come as a Biden victory looked likely. Wall Street may be more hopeful that an extended court fight over the election’s outcome may be avoided. The 2000 recount coincided with a stock market pullback of nearly 10%, though that was during the 2000-2002 bear market. Investors also are assuming that a Democratic boost in federal spending will offset any near-term downside from tax hikes and more regulation.
Trump Vs Biden Poll: Whose Voters Are More Committed?
How secure is Joe Biden’s advantage over Donald Trump? A number of questions in the IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll try to tease that out.
President Trump has a clear advantage when it comes to voters’ intensity of support. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 78% back him strongly, vs. 65% among intended Biden voters.
The IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that an equal 8% of Trump and Biden voters say they’re at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day.
Meanwhile, a matching 38% of voters expect each candidate to win. Yet 48% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 35% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden. The big difference comes from rural areas, where 71% say their neighbors back Trump.
IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,161 registered and 1,006 likely voters, from Oct. 20 through Oct. 24. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 371 Democrats, 334 Republicans and 295 independents.
The Trump vs. Biden poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD’s polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using “traditional” telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
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