Price analysis 2/7: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, SOL, XRP, LUNA, DOGE, DOT, AVAX

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price inched higher over the weekend as bulls try to enforce a trend change while bears attempt to stall the relief rally. On-chain monitoring resource Whalemap highlighted that $38,000 is the critical zone for the whales during any correction as whales had accumulated in this zone last week.On the upside, trader Pentoshi believes that Bitcoin could face stiff resistance near the 2022 yearly opening price of about $46,000. However, if Bitcoin remains strong, Pentoshi expects altcoins to start performing, especially since several of them have corrected sharply in the past few months.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Meanwhile, traders are likely to look toward the US equity markets for clues as Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with the Nasdaq in the past few days. Does the sharp rebound in Bitcoin’s price indicate a trend change? Could the improving sentiment pull altcoins higher? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.BTC/USDTBitcoin gradually continued to move up and has reached the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($42,809). The bears could try to defend this level because if they fail to do so, a trend change will be signaled.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe rising 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($40,008) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive zone indicate that bulls have a slight edge. Above the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $45,456. If bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could retest the 200-day SMA ($49,175).Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level of $45,456, the bears will attempt to pull the price back below $39,600. This is an important level to watch out for because if bulls flip this into support, it will suggest that a bottom is in place. On the other hand, a break and close below $39,600 could indicate that the current up-move may have been a bear market rally, which was sold into.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) has continued to rise gradually and reached the resistance line of the descending channel. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in the zone between the resistance line and the 50-day SMA ($3,241). ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewHowever, the rising 20-day EMA ($2,871) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers. If bulls thrust the price above the 50-day SMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the 200-day SMA ($3,543).Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The bears will then attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could challenge the strong support at $2,652.BNB/USDTBinance Coin (BNB) surged above the 20-day EMA ($408) on Feb. 5, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the resistance line of the channel and the 50-day SMA ($458).BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf they do that, it will indicate that the downtrend could be over. The 20-day EMA has turned up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.Above the 50-day SMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $500 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the resistance line. Such a move will indicate that bears have not given up and continue to sell on rallies. A break below the 20-day EMA could suggest that the pair may remain inside the channel for a few more days.ADA/USDT Cardano (ADA) bounced off the strong support at $1 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($1.13) on Feb. 4. The bears tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA on Feb. 5 and 6 but the bulls did not relent.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThis indicates that bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA. If the price rises above the 50-day SMA ($1.24), the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. A break and close above the channel could signal that the downtrend may be over. The pair could then rally to $1.60 and later toward the overhead resistance at $1.87. This positive view will be negated on a break and close below $1. Such a move could suggest the resumption of the downtrend.SOL/USDTSolana (SOL) broke above the 20-day EMA ($112) on Feb. 4 but the bulls have been struggling to clear the overhead hurdle at $116. This suggests that bears are attempting to defend the overhead resistance.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf bears fail to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA quickly, the prospects of a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel increase. A break and close above the 200-day SMA ($146) could indicate that the downtrend may be over.Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the resistance line, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The SOL/USDT pair could then extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days. XRP/USDTRipple (XRP) rose above the overhead resistance at $0.65 on Feb. 4 and picked up momentum on Feb. 7 to climb above the 50-day SMA ($0.75). A close above the 50-day SMA will signal a possible change in trend.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe XRP/USDT pair could then start its northward march toward the psychological level at $1. The 20-day EMA ($0.66) has started to turn up gradually and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, indicating an advantage to buyers.This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and sustains below $0.75. Such a move will indicate that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA. LUNA/USDTTerra’s LUNA token rose above the $54.20 overhead resistance on Feb. 5. The bears tried to pull the price back below the level on Feb. 6 but the bulls did not relent. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($58.96).LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf they manage to do that, the LUNA/USDT pair could start its northward march toward the downtrend line of the descending channel. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to signal a possible change in trend.Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, it will indicate that the pair could continue to trade inside the channel. A break and close below the 200-day SMA ($47) could clear the path for a possible drop to the support line of the channel.Related: Is Shiba Inu overheating after SHIB price gains 75% in two weeks?DOGE/USDTAfter struggling to sustain above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on Feb. 4 and 5, Dogecoin (DOGE) made a decisive move on Feb. 6 and closed above the resistance. This was the first indication that the selling pressure could be waning.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price has reached the 50-day SMA ($0.16), which could act as a resistance. If the price turns down from the current level but does not slip back below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest buying on dips.The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward the overhead resistance at $0.19. Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could slide to $0.13.DOT/USDTPolkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($20.87) on Feb. 5 but the bulls have been struggling to push the price above the breakdown level at $22.66. The bears are likely to defend the zone between $22.66 and the 50-day SMA ($24.16).DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from the overhead zone, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will then attempt to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to $16.81.Alternatively, if bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest a change in the short-term trend. The pair could then gradually move up to $28.60 and later continue its march toward the overhead resistance at $32.78.AVAX/USDTAvalanche (AVAX) rose above the 20-day EMA ($75.67) on Feb. 4, indicating that the bears could be losing their grip. The sellers tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA on Feb. 5 but the bulls held their ground.AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buying resumed on Feb. 6 and the AVAX/USDT pair has reached the resistance line of the ascending channel. If bulls drive the price above the channel, the pair could start its journey toward the downtrend line.The 20-day EMA has started to turn up gradually and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating a minor advantage to buyers. This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could pull the price to the uptrend line of the channel. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Crypto derivatives data signals improving investor sentiment and a possible trend reversal

This week the total crypto market capitalization rallied 10% to $1.68 trillion, which is a 25% recovery from the Jan. 24 bottom. It’s too early to suggest that the market has found a bottom but two key indicators — The Tether/CNY premium and CME futures basis — have recently flipped bullish, signaling that positive investor sentiment is backing the current price recovery.Total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, in USD billion. Source: TradingViewTraders should not assume that the bear trend has ended by merely looking at price charts. For example, between Dec. 13 and Dec. 27, the sector’s total market capitalization bounced from a $1.9 trillion low to $2.33 trillion. Yet, the 22.9% recovery was completely erased within nine days as crypto markets tanked on Jan. 5.Bearish data suggests the Fed has less room for rate hikesEven with the current trend change, bears have reason to believe that the 3-month long descending channel formation has not been broken. For example, the Feb.4 rally could have reflected the recent negative macroeconomic data, including EuroZone retail sales 2% yearly growth in December, which was well below the 5.1% market expectation.Independent market analyst Lyn Alden recently suggested that the United States Federal Reserve could postpone interest rate hikes after disappointing U.S. employment data was released on Feb. 2. The ADP Research Institute also showed a contraction of 301,000 private-sector jobs in December, which is the worst figure since March 2020.Regardless of the reason for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) gaining 10% on Friday, the Tether (USDT) premium at OKX reached its highest level in four months. The indicator compares China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the official U.S. dollar currency. Peer-to-peer CNY/USDT vs. CNY/USD. Source: OKXExcessive cryptocurrency demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value, or 100%. On the other hand, bearish markets tend to flood Tether’s market, causing a 4% or higher discount. Therefore, Friday’s pump had a significant impact on China-driven crypto markets.CME futures traders are no longer bearishTo further prove that the crypto market structure has improved, traders should analyze the CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts premium. The metric compares longer-term futures contracts and the traditional spot market price.It is an alarming red flag whenever that indicator fades or turns negative (backwardation) because it indicates that bearish sentiment is present.These fixed-calendar contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, the 1-month futures should trade at a 0.5% to 1% annualized premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.BTC CME 1-month forward contract premium vs. Coinbase/USD. Source: TradingViewThe chart above shows how the indicator entered backwardation levels on Jan. 4 as Bitcoin moved below $46,000 and Friday’s move marks the first sentiment trend reversal in a month. Data shows that institutional traders remain below the “neutral” threshold as measured by the futures’ basis, but at least reject the bearish market structure formation. While the CNY/Tether premium might have shown a trend shift, the CME premium reminds us that there’s a lot of distrust in Bitcoin’s capacity to function as an inflationary hedge. Still, the lack of CME traders’ excitement could be exactly what BTC needs to further fuel the rally if the $42,000 resistance is broken over the weekend.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, NEAR, MANA, LEO

Bitcoin (BTC) surged above the $40,000 psychological resistance on Feb. 4 and successfully held the level over the weekend. This boosted the total crypto market capitalization from $1.78 trillion on Feb. 3 to about $2 trillion on Feb. 6, according to data from CoinGecko.A new financial disclosure by Senator Ted Cruz shows that he bought the recent dip in Bitcoin on Jan. 25 through River brokerage. On that day, Bitcoin traded roughly between $35,700 and $37,600. If the Texas Senator has held his purchase, he is already in the profit.Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360Although the sharp recovery in Bitcoin’s price may have provided relief to the bulls, data analyst Material Scientist warned that large traders with a ticket size of over $100,000 are selling the rally.Could Bitcoin hold or extend its gains? If that happens, could the altcoins join the party? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that look ready to move to the upside in the short term.BTC/USDTBitcoin soared and closed above the 20-day exponential moving average ($39,600) on Feb. 4, indicating that bulls are attempting a strong comeback. The small range day on Feb. 5 shows that traders who may have purchased at lower levels are in no hurry to book profits yet.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe relative strength index (RSI) has jumped into the positive territory indicating that the momentum favors the bulls. However, it is unlikely to be a straight dash higher for the BTC/USDT pair.The bears are likely to mount a stiff resistance in the zone between the 50-day simple moving average ($42,860) and $44,500.If the price turns down from the overhead zone but does not plummet below $39,600, it will suggest that the level has flipped to support. The bulls will then again try to push the pair above the zone. If they succeed, the next stop could be the 200-day SMA ($49,115).BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle formation, which completed on a break and close above $39,320. This bullish setup has a pattern target at $45,722. The price is currently stuck in a tight range between $42,168 and $40,843. A break and close above this range will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The pair could then climb to $44,500 where the rally may hit a barrier. On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below $40,800, the pair could plunge to the breakout level at $39,320.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) surged above the 20-day EMA ($2,839) on Feb. 4 and has reached the resistance line of the descending channel. This level has acted as a strong resistance previously, hence the bears may again try to defend it with all their might.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from the zone between the resistance line and the 50-day SMA ($3,256), it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The ETH/USDT pair could first drop to the 20-day EMA and then to $2,652.If the price rebounds off this zone, it will indicate a change in sentiment from sell on rallies to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the pair above the overhead zone. If that happens a trend change could be in order.Alternatively, a break below $2,652 will suggest that the pair may continue to trade inside the channel for a few more days.ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows the price is rising inside an ascending channel pattern. The 20-EMA and the 50-SMA have turned up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.If bulls drive the price above the channel, the momentum could pick up further and the pair may rally to $3,400 where the bears are expected to mount a stiff resistance. Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, the pair could plummet to the support line of the channel.NEAR/USDTNEAR protocol (NEAR) bounced off the psychological support zone at $10 to $9.50 and cleared the 20-day EMA ($12.58) hurdle on Feb. 4. The bears tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA on Feb. 5 but the bulls held their ground.NEAR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe up-move has resumed today and the bulls are trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($14). If they manage to do that, the NEAR/USDT pair could climb to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $15.05 and then to the 61.8% retracement level at $16.36. The bears are likely to mount a strong defense in this zone.Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then once again drop to $10.NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle which generally acts as a continuation pattern but in this case, has functioned as a reversal pattern.Currently, the recovery is facing stiff resistance at the 200-SMA. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above 200-SMA. If that happens, the up-move could reach the pattern target of the setup at $16.36.This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price breaks below the 20-EMA. In such a case, the pair could drop and retest the breakout level from the triangle.Related: Axie Infinity token AXS gains 40% after taking steps to avoid ‘permanent economic collapse’MANA/USDTDecentraland (MANA) broke above the 20-day EMA ($2.70) on Jan. 31 but turned down from the 50-day SMA ($2.93) on Feb. 1. The bears tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA but failed. This indicates that the 20-day EMA may have flipped into support.MANA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe up-move resumed and the bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA on Feb. 05. If bulls sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the MANA/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $4.Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that bears are selling aggressively at higher levels. In that case, the pair could retest the strong support at the 200-day SMA ($2.03).MANA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows that both the 20-EMA and the 50-SMA are sloping up and the RSI is in the overbought zone. This indicates that bulls have the upper hand. Any dip from the current level is likely to find support at the moving averages.On the upside, the buyers may face stiff resistance at $3.40 and later at $4. This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the moving averages. The pair could then drop to $2.40.LEO/USDUNUS SED LEO (LEO) completed an ascending triangle pattern when it broke and closed above $3.92 on Feb. 1. The bears tried to pull the price back below the breakout level on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3 but the bulls did not relent.LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buying resumed on Feb. 4 and the price soared to a new all-time high at $5.44. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows profit-booking at higher levels. The pullback has pulled the RSI out of the deeply overbought zone.Usually, the corrections in an uptrend are short-lived. The long tail on today’s candlestick suggests aggressive buying at lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to push the LEO/USD pair above $5.44. If they succeed, the pair could rally toward the pattern target at $5.81 and later to $6.Alternatively, if bears pull the price below $4.50, the pair could correct to the 20-day EMA ($4.06). LEO/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows the pair is correcting in an uptrend. The bulls successfully defended the 20-EMA and are attempting to push the pair above the psychological level at $5. If they do that, the pair could retest the all-time high at $5.44.Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will indicate that traders are aggressively booking profits at higher levels. If the price slips below $4.38, the pair could drop to $4.20.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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