PlanB feeling 'uneasy' as 41% of his followers tip $100K BTC won’t happen this year

PlanB, the brainchild behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has revealed he is feeling “uneasy” about his renowned price predictions due to the recent downtrend in markets.The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted BTC prices with some degree of accuracy over the past two years, has been called into question by some of his followers in a recent Twitter poll.The anonymous analyst surveyed his followers on June 21 asking them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He used the results to compare them to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.Of the 124,595 respondents to the latest poll, 41% thought that BTC prices would remain below $100K by the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times the 16% in the previous poll who thought the lazer eyes crowd would be disappointed this year.What a difference 3 months make! 41% now thinks bitcoin will stay below $100K in 2021 (invalidating S2F model) vs 16% in March (when BTC was $55K). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 22, 2021PlanB who originally published the price predictor in March 2019, pinned a message admitting that even he feels a little “uneasy” when BTC prices deviate from the model. However, the analyst noted that the model had managed to hold previously in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market meltdown, and once more in September 2020.Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like Mar 2019 when I published S2F, or Mar 2020 Covid, or Sep 2020 with BTC stuck at $10K) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated? pic.twitter.com/iIjTC2Ncy3— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 23, 2021

Preston Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast Network, commented that it was difficult for a model to account for a blizzard of bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.“You mean your model doesn’t account for 40%+ of mining rigs getting banned & forced to turn-off & relocate to various parts of the world…and with no forward notice to companies/entitles for the extraordinary expense to their heavily denominated BTC treasuries/retained earnings.”The model is a calculation of a ratio based on the existing supply of Bitcoin against how much is entering circulation. The scarcer the asset becomes due to the four-year halving cycles the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288K over the next three years.Related: $288K BTC price ‘still in play’ says PlanB as Bloomberg champions Bitcoin halvingAt the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade at $34,450 according to CoinGecko. The asset is currently 45% down from its all-time high of $64,800 on April 14.

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Shanghai Man: China retains mining control? Alipay's ancient NFTs and Amber’s big raise

This weekly roundup of news from Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong attempts to curate the industry’s most important news, including influential projects, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. So low you’ve got to reach up to touch the bottomThis week in China felt like one giant mining-farm sized pile of FUD. This is usually a pretty good indication that a bottom is close to being in, but one can never be too sure when it comes to downwards volatility in cryptocurrency. Canaan, one of the largest mining companies in China, announced it was setting up shop in neighboring Kazakhstan. This is an ideal compromise for Canaan as it can remain close to China, while mitigating their regulatory risk. Reading between the lines, it seems like the plan is to mostly continue administration of the company from China while sending the machines overseas. This would put a wrench in the works of the Bitcoin purists who believe that the crackdowns are a good way to break up China’s dominance in the mining industry. Just this week, a professor at a university in Singapore wrote in Chinese that the shift to a more decentralized network would be a good thing. This raised some eyebrows for the use of a made up word that translates roughly to ‘de-China-ization’, but the article holds even less weight when large mining companies like Canaan are able to shift physical equipment overseas but still remain in control of the governance. Too big for postage stampsOn June 21, CNBC’s Beijing Bureau Chief Eunice Yoon posted on Twitter that a logistics company in Guangzhou was shipping 3,000 kilograms worth of mining hardware to Maryland, US. According to her claim, the price was $9.37 per kilogram. Some quick math reveals that the total cost would be less than the price of one Bitcoin, at least at the time of writing. Bitmain lends a helping handCointelegraph reported on June 23 that massive mining company Bitmain was suspending sales of mining hardware in a move to support the over-supplied secondhand markets. According to the article, sales of hashing power in China has seen a decrease of around 75% since the Spring. Bitmain is reportedly moving operations abroad as well, which would be a major move for the hardware manufacturing giant. Mine-amiFrancis Suarez, everyone’s favorite Bitcoin-friendly mayor, was at it again on June 18 when he announced that all Chinese Bitcoin miners were welcome in Miami. The announcement was translated and posted on Sina Finance’s Blockchain Weibo account, which attracted over 53 comments from surprised netizens. Most of these user comments were negative in nature however, both towards Suarez and Bitcoin in general. A large portion of Weibo users hold cryptocurrencies in ill-regard, especially those that have been investing in the stagnant Chinese stock market. Amber is the color of your energyAmber, a cryptocurrency service provider based in Hong Kong, completed a Series B funding round worth $100m. Amber is well known among institutions for their financial services that include asset management, OTC services and lending. Alipay’s foray into NFTsTop payment processor Alipay continues to push its AntChain technology by partnering with the Dunhuang Research Academy to release 8,000 NFT skins. Dunhuang is famous for being an old silk road outpost and is home to Mogao Caves, a Unesco Heritage site. The NFTs featured artwork inspired by the cultural site and quickly sold out. AntChain is a private blockchain developed by Alibaba’s Ant Group.

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Bitcoin hits $35K after Biden reveals infrastructure deal, Paraguay proposes BTC bill

Bitcoin (BTC)  price received a boost as news that lawmakers in Paraguay plan to present a bill to make BTC legal tender spread across Twitter. Shortly after the unconfirmed news surfaced on Twitter, Bitcoin price rallied to $35,289 before slightly pulling back below the key short-term resistance level. Congratulations Paraguay • a bill has been submitted to make #BITCOIN legal tender • reading likely to occur on July 14th• they wish to be a crypto hub• promotion of green energy mining • some interest from Argentina & Brazil now too— djThistle (@DJThistle01) June 24, 2021While the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index still indicates a sentiment of Extreme Fear, it’s worth noting that the measure has risen from 14 on June 23 to 22 on June 24 as traders begin to view the drop below $29,000 and Bitcoin’s rising open interest as signs that the current corrective phase may have ended. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index. Source: AlternativeWhile traders’ sentiment may have improved slightly, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman suggested that investors could be waiting for the $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) quarterly futures and options to expire on June 25 before making a more decisive move. Stocks reach new record highs, altcoins rallyThe crypto market wasn’t the only market to rally today. Traditional markets also rose to new highs after U.S. President Joe Biden revealed that he had reached an agreement on a $953 billion bipartisan infrastructure spending plan with the Senate. Following the announcement, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rallied to new record intraday highs and closed the day up 24.65 points and 97.98 points respectively, while the Dow gained more than 322 points on the day. Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360As one would expect, altcoins also surged higher as Bitcoin price and traditional markets moved higher. Ether (ETH) rallied back above the psychologically important $2,000 level, while Tron (TRX) and Celo gained 26% and 28% respectively. CELO’s move appears to be driven by the listing of its Celo Euro (cEUR) stablecoin on KuCoin exchange. Prior to the recent price rise, VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for CELO on June 22. The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. CELO price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets ProAs seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for CELO climbed into the green and reached a high of 73 on June 22, one hour before its price began to spike 56% over the next day. The VORTECS™ Score turned green again on June 24, reaching a high of 74 as CELO began to rally another 25%.The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.4 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.6%.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Waiting game: Why Friday’s $6B in Bitcoin and Ethereum expiries may not move the market

After an incredible start in 2021, Ether peaked at $4,380 on May 12 but has dropped 55% since then. Unlike the leading cryptocurrency, the Ethereum network faces competition from projects that do not depend on proof-of-work, hence not facing the bottleneck issues that caused transaction fees to skyrocket.Whenever markets disappoint traders with a negative surprise, traders quickly seek external explanations for their failure to interpret signals. But, in reality, a clear indication that China was concerned about the crypto mining energy consumption came out on April 30, six weeks ahead of the initial price crash.On May 6, recently confirmed U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler punted to congress on providing more regulatory oversight to the crypto space. However, in defense of excessively optimistic investors, similar promises have circulated for over four years.Regardless of the many reasons behind the recent negative market performance, traders like to blame someone for their mistakes, and what better scapegoat than derivatives markets?Cointelegraph was the first news outlet to analyze the $2.5 billion Bitcoin futures expiry, potentially giving bears a $450 million lead if the price fails to hold $32,000 on June 25. On June 12, Cointelegraph said that Ether’s $1.5B monthly options expiry would be a make-or-break moment, as 73% of the neutral-to-bullish options would be worthless below $2,200.Updated open interest figures show a $1.36 billion open interest for Ether options and another $500 million worth of futures contracts to expire on Friday. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s options open interest has grown to $2.64 billion, while another $1.44 billion is set to expire in futures markets.To understand whether derivatives markets, mainly the quarterly expiries, hold such a significant impact on prices, investors need to evaluate the past expiries.December 2020 and March 2021 reflect diverging movementsIn November 2020, Bitcoin initiated a strong rally, accumulating 75% gains ahead of the December expiry. Bitcoin price on Dec. 2020 and Mar. 2021 expiries. Source: TradingViewOver 102,000 Bitcoin options matured on Christmas day, but there was no apparent impact. Instead, the bull trend continued as Bitcoin subsequently rallied another 69% in 12 days.March 2021, on the other hand, showed completely different price action. Bitcoin price plunged 14% ahead of the options expiry, although it fully recovered over the next four days. It is worth noting that on March 22, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, “Bitcoin is too volatile to be money” and “backed by nothing.” In that same week, billionaire fund manager Ray Dalio raised concerns on a possible “U.S. Bitcoin ban.”March, June, and September 2020 showed no signs of a dump ahead of expiryIf March 2021 could have built a possible case for dumping activity ahead of expiry, the previous year faced an opposite movement.Bitcoin price on March, June, and Sep. 2020 expiries. Source: TradingViewBitcoin went on a 31% bull run in the ten days leading to the March 26, 2020 expiry. However, an 11% correction took place the following day, therefore potentially building a case for investors to cite ‘manipulation.’ However, the 45% hash rate drop that surrounded the date partially explains the sell-off.The June 26 expiry did not seem to significantly impact price because Bitcoin dropped 2% before the event and another 2% over the next two days. However, an exact inverse pattern occurred on the September 2020 expiry when Bitcoin hiked 2% ahead of Sept. 25 and continued to increase by 2% over the following two days.Options and futures expiries cannot be deemed bearish or bullishAs the data from the previous five quarterly expiries show, there is absolutely no indication of a pump and dump (or inverse) movement ahead of the derivative events. For investors and traders waiting for a bottom confirmation, the answer probably lies in Bitcoin’s hash rate recomposition. One should also account for Chinese over-the-counter traders re-establishing their fiat gateways after the recent nationwide ban on cryptocurrency transactions.Bitcoin price has slightly recovered from its sharp dip below $29,000, but generally, the past month has not been generous to BTC and Ether (ETH). Bitcoin has failed to break the $40,000 resistance multiple times, and the recent dip to a six-month low at $28,800 was a startling sign for many investors. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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London Stock Exchange-listed firm inks FCA’s approval for crypto services

Mode Global Holdings, a London Stock Exchange-listed fintech group, has secured major regulatory approvals for cryptocurrency and fintech operations in the United Kingdom.The company announced Thursday that Mode has secured its Electronic Money Institution license and AMLD5 registration from the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority.The AMLD5 registration has been granted to Mode’s crypto arm Fibermode Limited, establishing it as an official crypto asset firm in the United Kingdom, pursuant to the amended regulations on money laundering, terrorist financing and transfer of funds.The AMLD5 registration is a requirement for crypto-related businesses in the country that fall within the scope of money laundering regulations. According to the announcement, Mode is the fifth company to have received this registration to date since the FCA became the official AML supervisor of the crypto industry in the U.K. in January 2020.Alongside the AMLD5, Mode’s subsidiary Greyfoxx Limited also acquired the EMI license, which enables Mode to offer a “range of innovative financial services” to both businesses and consumers in the United Kingdom, the announcement notes.Following the acquisition of new regulatory approvals, Mode is planning to further expand its crypto services, including decommissioning its investment product known as the “Bitcoin Jar.” The product aims to allow Mode customers to use Bitcoin (BTC) to generate BTC interest rather than simply holding it in a wallet or on an exchange.Mode CEO Ryan Moore noted that the new regulatory developments provide a major step in Mode’s mission to deliver a trusted and regulated environment. “It means we now have the ability to scale our operations and continue delivering innovative payments products for our customers under our own EMI licence. Both the EMI licence and the AMLD5 registration ensure business transparency, strong oversight and give our customers confidence in our offering,” he said.Related: UK regulator warns against 111 unregistered crypto companies… and FOMOThe latest news comes shortly after a member of the British Parliament pointed out major difficulties in the process of registering crypto firms under the FCA’s AML regulations in late May. Economic secretary John Glen elaborated that FCA was not able to process and register all applications by its previous deadline due to a significant number of firms failing to adopt robust AML control frameworks as well as employ proper staff.

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Bitcoin in uptrend but BTC may never beat gold's $10T market cap — ex-NYSE head

Bitcoin (BTC) is on a “lower left to upper right trend” and its volatility should not scare investors, the former head of the New York Stock Exchange says.In an interview with CNBC on June 23, Thomas Farley revealed long-term convictions about Bitcoin and dismissed concerns over BTC price losses.Bitcoin: Going up, but not “up only”Coming a day after CNBC pundit Jim Cramer admitted that he sold his Bitcoin stash, suggesting that BTC/USD was going as low as $10,000, Farley provided some much-needed mainstream bullishness.“With respect to the recent price moves, I’m kind of sanguine about them — Bitcoin’s a very volatile asset class, in part because it’s a new asset class,” he told the network.“I have no doubt it’ll go up, it’ll go down over the long term — I still think it’s a lower left to upper right trend and I think we’re going to see that play out over five years.”With mining upheaval coming from China still on everyone’s lips, popular mainstream criticism of Bitcoin’s energy usage was also swiftly cast aside as a temporary issue.“I think this kerfuffle is an interesting conversation, but by and large I think it’ll be resolved because I think the blockchain at its core adds to its efficiency and in fact will add to energy efficiency over time,” he continued.[embedded content]Less convinced on gold. vs. BitcoinWhen it comes to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” however, Farley was more conservative in his predictions.Now firmly beneath a trillion-dollar market cap, Bitcoin must transform in order to take on store-of-value safe-havens.Related: Joining the ranks: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and stocks is growing“I think the upper bound for now is gold, which is about a $10 trillion market cap,” he added.“In order for Bitcoin to one day exceed gold, it’ll have to be more of an accepted form of currency — I’m not sure, frankly, if it ever gets there.”Proponents argue that Bitcoin, by its very nature, faces just a matter of time before eclipsing gold thanks to the latter’s ultimately infinite supply and inability to beat Bitcoin in all aspects of “money.”The precious metal saw a major sell-off last week after comments on policy from the United States Federal Reserve.To beat gold, Bitcoin would need to trade at more than $533,000 with the current supply.

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NYDIG and Q2 partner to enable Bitcoin trading for 18M US bank customers

New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has partnered with Q2, a firm specializing in providing digital services to financial institutions, to provide access to Bitcoin (BTC) for bank account holders in the United States.According to a release issued on Wednesday, the partnership will potentially open up Bitcoin buying, selling and custody channels to about 18.3 million bank customers in America.Indeed, Q2 provider internet banking services to about 30% of the Top 100 U.S. banks and serves over a tenth of the country’s digital banking customers.As previously reported by Cointelegraph, NYDIG began working towards providing Bitcoin trading services to Americans via their bank accounts. At the time, the firm partnered with fintech outfit Fidelity National Information Services to provide U.S. lenders with the ability to offer crypto trading services to their customers.Apart from Q2, NYDIG has also partnered with cloud-based digital banking service provider Alkami and global payment services outfit Fiserv to enable Bitcoin access for more customers of financial institutions.Detailing the specifics of its partnership with NYDIG in a separate announcement, Fiserv revealed that its collaboration was tailored towards banks and credit unions amid the growing interest for BTC.First Foundation Bank, a California-based financial institution, is reportedly working with NYDIG and Fiserv to onboard Bitcoin trading and custody for its customers. Back in April, the bank’s parent company, First Foundation Inc., invested in NYDIG to provide clients with access to Bitcoin-based investment products. Related: US banks to allow Bitcoin trading in 2021, says NYDIG execsOn the Alkami front, NYDIG is now part of the firm’s Gold Partner Program — a significant step in enabling banks and credit unions to offer BTC buying and custody products to their customers.Commenting on the importance of these collaborations, NYDIG co-founder and CEO Robert Gutmann declared that these partnerships were necessary to make Bitcoin readily accessible via legacy financial institutions.According to Gutmann, such integration efforts will help to ensure the continued expansion of the Bitcoin network.

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Blockchain.com introduces username-based crypto transactions

Major crypto wallet provider Blockchain.com is integrating with Unstoppable Domains to simplify sending crypto funds for its customers.Unstoppable Domains announced Thursday that it had integrated native support for Blockchain.com, enabling that latter’s 32 million verified users to send funds with a username instead of a full-length crypto wallet address.The initiative aims to remove the risk of human error when sending funds, simplifying transactions between Blockchain.com users and more than 50 other wallets and exchanges supported by Unstoppable Domains, including Coinbase wallet, MyEtherWallet and others.The integration allows users to send cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) using a readable recipient’s domain instead of a 25-to-42-digit alphanumeric wallet address. This way, users will be protected from associated typos or miscopies.“With our integration with Blockchain.com, an ‘invalid address’ message will pop up if the address is not linked to a wallet,” Unstoppable Domains founder and CEO Matthew Gould told Cointelegraph. Gould said that there is no specific character length for a domain wallet address. “We only recommend you pick a domain that’s easy to read and remember. It could be your first and last name, your nickname, the name of your business,” he noted.Related: Unstoppable Domains’ .crypto websites now available via Brave browserThe news comes amid Unstoppable Domains hitting a major milestone, with the company selling more than one million domain names that are minted as nonfungible tokens (NFTs) on the Ethereum blockchain. Alongside sending and receiving funds, these NFT domains with a .crypto extension are used to create decentralized websites to publish content and access Web3.

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Winklevoss’ Gemini buys carbon credits to cut Bitcoin’s CO2 footprint

Gemini, a major cryptocurrency exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is responding to Bitcoin’s (BTC) environmental issue by purchasing carbon credits. On Thursday, the company announced its long-term initiative to incorporate climate-conscious measures into its business, launching a collaboration with Climate Vault, a nonprofit founded at the University of Chicago.Through the initiative, Gemini plans to purchase carbon credits for nearly 350,000 metric tons of carbon to offset non-renewable energy consumed by Bitcoin miners and help decarbonize Bitcoin on the Bitcoin network.According to the announcement, the partnership will have Gemini purchase carbon permits directly from government-related cap-and-trade markets and erase them from circulation. In doing this, Gemini prevents other market players from using these carbon credits to emit CO2 and thus cuts the overall supply of carbon permits. According to Gemini, the resulting reduction in allowed emissions is equivalent to almost 1 billion miles driven by a passenger car.Gemini will keep working with Climate Vault in an ongoing campaign to cut and ultimately remove the carbon emissions of the Bitcoin that Gemini custodies, the announcement notes. Gemini has also allocated $1 million through the Gemini Opportunity Fund to support sustainability-focused companies and projects as part of its environment-conscious program, Gemini Green.Related: UN sees blockchain technology as tool to fight climate crisis“As Bitcoin emerges as a dominant store of value, it’s imperative that we incorporate sustainability for future generations. We are proud to team up with Climate Vault to offset our exposure to non-renewable mining and contribute to the decarbonizing of Bitcoin,” Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said.Earlier in June, crypto-focused hedge fund One River Digital said that over 75% of assets in its Bitcoin private fund committed to shift to its new carbon-neutral share class in a move to offset Bitcoin’s environmental impact.

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NYC's mayoral frontrunner pledges to turn city into Bitcoin hub

Within the same month, talk of the United States’ budding capital of crypto has seemingly shifted its center from Miami to New York City.  June opened with feverish excitement about the largest Bitcoin (BTC) event in history being hosted in Miami, and the city’s mayor, Francis Suarez, has taken a series of steps to strengthen his bid to make Miami the top spot for crypto not just nationally but globally.Yet with U.S. pundits now focused on New York City’s mayoral race, the current frontrunner for the Democratic nominee, Eric Adams, has — at least momentarily — stolen the limelight from Suarez and his plans. On election night on Tuesday, soon after voting had closed for the primaries, Adams pledged:“I’m going to promise you: In one year — one year — you’re going to see a different city. […] We’re going to become the center of life science, the center of cybersecurity, the center of self-driving cars, drones, the center of Bitcoins. We’re going to be the center of all the technology.”In a city known for its overwhelmingly Democrat-leaning voting record, successful candidacy as Democratic nominee is viewed by most commentators as a surefire route to becoming the city’s actual mayor once elections are held in November later this year. Adams’ frontrunner status, moreover, was cemented soon after another candidate, Andrew Yang — himself a staunch crypto advocate — conceded defeat after the first vote count results indicated that his rival was well in the lead. Within hours, Adams had seemingly taken the words out of Yang’s mouth — literally.As mayor of NYC – the world’s financial capital – I would invest in making the city a hub for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.— Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) February 11, 2021Related: Andrew Yang says he’ll transform NYC into a Bitcoin hub if elected mayorAdams is a former police officer and was a self-described “conservative Republican” early in his political career. He has successfully tapped big donor funds, positioned himself as tough on crime and aligned himself with the real estate industry, all the while appealing to local unions, parties and churches by pitching his fidelity to “values instilled in him by his single mother when he struggled with hunger and homelessness as a young man.” While progressives have, unsurprisingly, been highly critical of Adams, his strategy also had the effect of ensuring that Yang continued to tack right. Yang’s recent political history has been intense, including a rumored shortlisting for the role of commerce secretary in President Joe Biden’s cabinet and a high-profile presidential campaign, neither of which ended up positively for his crypto community fans. With Yang now out of the mayoral contest, what may have seemed a blow to the industry may just as quickly have turned out to be a hopeful opportunity.

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