So what if Bitcoin price keeps falling! Here is why it’s time to start paying attention

For bulls, Bitcoin’s (BTC) daily price action leaves a lot to be desired, and at the moment, there are few signs of an imminent turnaround. Following the trend of the past six or more months, the current factors continue to place pressure on BTC price: Persistent concerns of potential stringent crypto regulation. United States Federal Reserve policy, interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening.Geopolitical concerns related to Russia, Ukraine and the weaponization of high-demand natural resources imported by the European Union. Strong risk-off sentiment due to the possibility of a U.S. and global recession.When combined, these challenges have made high volatility assets less than interesting to institutional investors, and the euphoria seen during the 2021 bull market has largely dissipated. So, day-to-day price action is not encouraging, but looking at longer duration metrics that gauge Bitcoin’s price, investor sentiment and perceptions of valuation do present some interesting data points. The market still flirts with oversold conditionsOn the daily and weekly timeframe, BTC’s price is pressing against a long-term descending trendline. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands, a simple momentum indicator that reflects two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average, are beginning to constrict. Tightening in the bands usually occurs before a directional move, and price trading at long-term resistance is also typically indicative of a strong directional move. Bitcoin’s sell-off from March 28 to June 13 sent its relative strength index (RSI) to a multi-year record low, and a quick glance at the indicator compared against BTC’s longer-term price action shows that buying when the RSI is deeply oversold is a profitable strategy. BTC/USD weekly chart relative strength index. Source: TradingViewWhile the short-term situation is dire, a price agnostic view of Bitcoin and its market structure would suggest that now is an opportune moment to accumulate. Now, let’s contrast Bitcoin’s multi-year price action over the RSI to see if any interesting dynamics emerge. BTC/USD weekly chart. Source. TradingViewIn my opinion, the chart speaks for itself. Of course, further downside could occur, and various technical and on-chain analysis indicators have yet to confirm a market bottom. Some analysts have forecast a drop to the $15,000–$10,000 range, and it’s possible that the buy wall at $18,000 is absorbed and turns into a bull trap. Aside from that event, increasing position size at the occurrence of an oversold weekly RSI has yielded positive results for those brave enough to take a swing. Another interesting metric to view in the longer timeframe is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) oscillator. Like the RSI, the MACD became deeply oversold as Bitcoin’s price collapsed to $17,600, and while the MACD (blue) has crossed above the signal line (orange), we can see that it still lingers in previously untested territory. BTC weekly MACD. Source: TradingViewThe histogram has turned positive, which some traders interpret as an early trend reversal sign, but given all the macro challenges facing crypto, it should not be heavily relied upon in this instance. What I find interesting is that while Bitcoin’s price is painting lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart, the RSI and MACD are moving in the opposite direction. This is known as a bullish divergence. BTC/USD weekly chart reflecting bullish divergences. Source: TradingViewFrom the vantage point of technical analysis, the confluence of multiple indicators suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued. Now, with that said, the bottom does not appear to be in, given that a bevy of non-crypto-specific issues continues to inject weakness into BTC’s price and the wider market. A drop to $10,000 is another 48% slide from BTC’s current valuation near $20,000. Let’s take a look at what the on-chain data is showing at the moment. MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV Z-Score is an on-chain metric that reflects a ratio of BTC’s market capitalization against its realized capitalization (the amount people paid for BTC compared to its value today). According to co-creator David Puell: “This metric clearly displays the peaks and busts of the price cycle, emphasizing the oscillation between fear and greed. The brilliance of realized value is that it subdues ‘the emotions of the crowds’ by a significant degree.”Basically, if Bitcoin’s market value is measurably higher than its realized value, the metric enters the red area, indicating a possible market top. When the metric enters the green zone, it signals that Bitcoin’s current value is below its realized price and that the market could be nearing a bottom. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score. Source: GlassnodeLooking at the chart, when compared against Bitcoin’s price, the current 0.127 MVRV Z-Score is in the same range as previous multi-year lows and cycle bottoms. Comparing the on-chain data against the technical analysis indicators mentioned earlier again suggests that BTC is undervalued and in an optimal zone for building a long position. Related: Bitcoin price slips under $19K as official data confirms US recessionReserve RiskAnother on-chain data point showing interesting data is the Reserve Risk metric. Created by Hans Hauge, the chart provides a visual of how “confident” Bitcoin investors are contrasted against the spot price of BTC. As shown on the chart below, when investor confidence is high, but BTC price is low, the risk to reward or Bitcoin attractiveness versus the risk of buying and holding BTC enters the green area. During times when investor confidence is low, but the price is high, Reserve Risk moves into the red area. According to historical data, building a Bitcoin position when Reserve Risk enters the green zone has been a good time to establish a position. Bitcoin reserve risk. Source: LookIntoBitcoinAs of Sept. 30, data from LookIntoBitcoin and Glassnode both show Reserve Risk trading at its lowest measurement ever and outside the boundaries of the green zone.This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin 2021 bull market buyers ‘capitulate’ as data shows 50% losses

Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot trading below $20,000 is seeing a new “capitulation” event encompassing an entire year’s worth of buyers, research reveals.In one of its Quicktake market updates on Sept. 29, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged intense selling by a large number of recent hodlers.2021 bull market coins “have been sold aggressively”As BTC/USD lingers near levels barely seen since 2020, it is not just miners feeling the pinch.Analyzing Bitcoin’s Exchange Inflow Spent Output Ages Bands (SOAB), CryptoQuant contributor Edris showed that those who bought between April 2021 and April 2022 have been selling coins en masse — for less than they bought them.“Looking at the chart, it is evident that coins aged between 6–18 months ago have been sold aggressively recently,” he concluded.“These coins have been bought between April 2021 and April 2022 at prices above $30K. This signal means that many holders who have entered the market during the 2021 bull market and above the $30K mark, have recently capitulated and exited the market at an approximate 50% loss.”Bitcoin exchange inflow Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantSuch events should not be taken lightl because they tend to occur at the bottom of bear markets. The only question is whether the recent macro bottom in June at $17,600 will be this one’s floor.Edris added:“These types of capitulations tend to occur during the last months of a bear market, pointing to a potential bottom formation in the near future.” Profit warning meets profit potentialInvestigating Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, meanwhile, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Caue Oliveira highlighted another historical bear market trend repeating itself.Related: Bitcoin price due ‘big dump’ after passing $20K, warns traderSOPR divides the price paid for an amount of BTC by the price it is sold at. The resulting figure fluctuates around 1, with values below indicative of a bear market as investors begrudgingly shoulder net losses.According to data from fellow on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, as of Sept. 29, entity-adjusted SOPR was just over 0.95.The metric is trending back towards 1, having seen a local bottom in June, suggesting that the prime buying opportunity may have already hit.“Looking at the on-chain spending pattern of long-term holders, measured through the Spent Output Profit Ratio… we can find the biggest selling points at a loss,” Oliveira wrote.“Historically these points have been the best risk-adjusted entries in the last two bear market floors.”Looking ahead, a “maximum pressure point” for long-term holders (LTHs) is on the cards, he added, referencing selling pressure decreasing as SOPR inches higher.Bitcoin entity-adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Price analysis 9/30: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT

The United States equities markets have been under a firm bear grip for a large part of the year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have declined for three quarters in a row, a first since 2009. There was no respite in selling in September and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to record its worst September since 2002. These figures outline the kind of carnage that exists in the equities market.Compared to these disappointing figures, Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins have not given up much ground in September. This is the first sign that selling could be drying up at lower levels and long-term investors may have started bottom fishing.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360In the final quarter of the year, investors will continue to focus on the inflation data. Any indication of inflation topping could bring about a sharp recovery in risk assets, but if inflation remains stubbornly high, then a round of sell-offs could follow.Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine if a recovery is on the cards.SPXThe S&P 500 index (SPX) has been under intense selling pressure for the past few days but the bulls have held their ground. This indicates that bulls are buying the dips near 3,636.SPX daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe first resistance on the upside is 3,737. If bulls thrust the price above this level, the index could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (3,818). In a downtrend, this is the important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. Sharp declines are usually followed by strong rallies. That could carry the index to the downtrend line and then to the 50-day simple moving average (4,012).The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to extend the downtrend by sinking and sustaining the price below 3,636. If they manage to do that, the index could plummet to 3,500 and later to 3,325.DXYThe U.S. dollar index surged to 114.77 on Sept. 28, which pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into deeply overbought territory. This may have attracted profit-booking by the short-term traders which pulled the price near the 20-day EMA (111).DXY daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the bullish momentum could be weakening. That could clear the path for a possible drop to the 50-day SMA (108). The zone between the 50-day SMA and the uptrend line is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls because if they fail to defend the zone, it will indicate that the index may have topped out.On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls continue to buy on dips. Buyers will then again attempt to thrust the price above 114.77 and resume the uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is 118. BTC/USDTBitcoin bounced off the strong support at $18,626 on Sept. 28, indicating that the bulls continue to fiercely defend this level. The long tail on the candlestick of the past two days shows that bulls are buying the intraday dips.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,602) on Sept. 30 but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This shows that bears are selling near the 50-day SMA ($20,621). If bulls do not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to the downtrend line increases. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level but if bulls clear this hurdle, the BTC/USDT pair could signal a short-term trend change. The pair could then rise to $22,799.Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA ($20,625), the pair could again drop to the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) has been declining in a descending channel pattern for the past several days. In the short term, the price has been stuck between $1,250 and $1,410, indicating demand at lower levels but selling near the resistance.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price action inside the range is usually random and volatile. Hence, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. If the price breaks above $1,410, it will suggest that the bulls have absorbed the supply. That could propel the price to the resistance line of the channel. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to suggest a potential trend change.On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below $1,250, the bears will attempt to cement their advantage by pulling the ETH/USDT pair below the channel. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $1,000.BNB/USDTBinance Coin (BNB) turned up sharply from $266 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($278) on Sept. 28. This indicates that lower levels are attracting strong buying by the bulls.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls pushed the price above the resistance line of the descending channel on Sept. 29 but are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($288). If bulls do not allow the price to plummet back below the 20-day EMA, it will improve the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to $300 and later to $338.On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $258.XRP/USDTXRP rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.43) on Sept. 28, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up as they will try to stall the recovery in the $0.52 to $0.56 zone.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf buyers do not give up much ground from the current level, the possibility of a break above the overhead zone increases. A break above $0.56 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to $0.66.Conversely, if the price continues lower, the pair could drop to the breakout level of $0.41. The bulls are likely to defend this level vigorously. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may enter a range-bound action for a few days.ADA/USDT The long tail on Cardano’s (ADA) Sept. 28 and 29 candlestick shows that the bulls bought at lower levels in an attempt to defend the uptrend line. Although the price rose above the uptrend line on Sept. 29, buyers could not sustain the recovery.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price has again tumbled below the uptrend line on Sept. 30. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price breaks below $0.42, the ADA/USDT pair could decline to the crucial support at $0.40. The bulls are expected to defend this level with vigor.Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and closes above the uptrend line, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.45) and challenge the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.47).Related: Bitcoin surges above $20K after 6% BTC rally gains steam ahead of the monthly closeSOL/USDTBuyers are attempting to form a higher low in Solana (SOL). The price rebounded off $31.65 on Sept. 28 and reached the 50-day SMA ($34.70) on Sept. 30.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($33.30) is trying to turn up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the price breaks and sustains above the 50-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $39. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level.Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to $31.65. A break below this support could sink the pair to $30.DOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 25 and the bears thwarted attempts by the bulls to resume the recovery on Sept. 27.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA is flattish and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the price below the support near $0.06. The price could then plunge to $0.05.The bulls will gain the upper hand if they drive and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.06). The DOGE/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.07 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.DOT/USDTPolkadot (DOT) has been trading in a tight range between $6 and $6.64 for the past few days. This indicates a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe gradually downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge. If the price drops below $6, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $4.To invalidate this negative bias, bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($6.64). If they do that, it will suggest that the consolidation near the support may have been an accumulation phase. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($7.26) and later to $8.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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MicroStrategy takes its BTC maximalism to the next level with new engineer hire

MicroStrategy, the business intelligence and tech company that holds the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, is hiring a Bitcoin Lightning software engineer to create a Lightning Network-based software-as-a-service platform.The new engineer will be responsible for building a Lightning Network-based platform to address enterprise cybersecurity challenges and enable new e-commerce use cases, according to a job posting linked to the MicroStrategy website. Besides “an adversarial mindset,” the applicant should have certificates, knowledge of tools and programming languages, and experience with decentralized finance technologies.MicroStrategy is looking to hire a Bitcoin Lightning Software Engineer to build a Lightning Network-based SaaS platform. #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/XFYrkIaFA9— Neil Jacobs (@NeilJacobs) September 30, 2022MicroStrategy, founded in 1989, began a Bitcoin buying spree in August 2020 that has culminated in a reserve of 130,000 BTC, worth $2.57 billion at the time of writing. The purchase of the final 301 BTC of its holdings was announced on Sept. 20, paying around $3.98 billion for the entire reserve. Bitcoin profitability for long-term holders recently hit a four-year low. MicroStrategy now holds 0.62% of all the BTC that will ever exist. MicroStrategy co-founder and former CEO Michael Saylor is well known as a Bitcoin maximalist and defender of the cryptocurrency. Saylor resigned as CEO on Aug. 2 but remains the executive chair of the company. Saylor said the change would:“Enable us to better pursue our two corporate strategies of acquiring and holding Bitcoin and growing our enterprise analytics software business.”Saylor and MicroStrategy were sued at the end of the same month for tax evasion by the office of the Washington, DC attorney general.Related: How high transaction fees are being tackled in the blockchain ecosystemThe Lightning Network is a Bitcoin layer-2 protocol designed to raise payment throughput and lower transaction fees. It has been making slow progress in facilitating peer-to-peer transactions since it debuted in 2018.

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Bitcoin surges above $20K after 6% BTC rally gains steam ahead of the monthly close

Bitcoin (BTC) swiftly climbed above $20,000 after the Sept. 30 Wall Street open as end-of-month volatility began. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin volatility back for monthly closeData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 3% in a single hourly candle to hit local highs of $20,171 on Bitstamp.The move followed predictions from traders, who were looking for slightly higher levels to precede a fresh downside move.“Moving my stop to my entry now at 19.3k but letting it ride first to 21.7k where I think there’s some major resistance,” popular trader Pentoshi wrote in part of a fresh Twitter update about his trading plans.“Looks like strength to me,” trading account IncomeSharks continued.“Great way to finish the week off after seeing people switch back to being bearish every other day depending on the candle color.”Fellow trader Cheds called $20,000 a “pivot,” focusing attention on the psychologically significant level. Cheds previously flagged declining U.S. dollar strength — a classic catalyst for risk-asset performance. The downturn in the U.S. dollar index continued on the day, approaching 112 points after meeting resistance during a rebound.U.S. dollar index 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewA further macro catalyst came in the form of United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data, which came in hotter than expected, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve.In Europe, record Consumer Price Index readings brought shock for some, with highlights including the Netherlands’ 17.1% year-on-year increase.The fate of September’s candle hangs in the balanceMeanwhile, with hours to go until the September monthly candle close, eyes were firmly on whether bulls could stay the course.Related: Bitcoin profitability for long-term holders declines to 4-year low: DataWhether BTC/USD would finish the month up or down versus the start remained open to interpretation, as did the fate of monthly support. BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAt publication time, the pair was 0.35% higher than on Sept. 1 — still enough to post its first “green” September since 2016, data from Coinglass confirmed.Looking ahead, analyst William Clemente reiterated that statistically, Q4 was a solid period of returns for hodlers.“Historically Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best performance by far, with an average quarterly return of +103.9%,” he tweeted. “October and November have been its best performing individual months with avg returns of 24% and 58%. Does seasonality matter? Let’s see.”Coinglass data likewise showed that for Q3, BTC/USD was currently at 0.92%.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Mainstream media sentiment shifts in favor of Bitcoin amid fiat currency woes

Despite USD bringing an onslaught to stocks, commodities and its rival currencies, Bitcoin (BTC) holds steady at the $19,000 to $20,000 mark, leaving mainstream media no choice but to put BTC into the headlines. American daily newspaper The New York Times highlighted BTC’s 6.5% increase in the last seven days and noted that this had caught the attention of crypto bulls and bears. Meanwhile, Fortune Magazine’s crypto outlet has also compared Bitcoin’s standout performance to other assets like the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and gold, apart from the euro and pound. With fiat currencies like the euro and the Great British pound sterling failing to hold their ground against the United States dollar (USD), mainstream media outlets have started to put Bitcoin (BTC) into the spotlight for its steady performance. Source: moneymorning.com.auOn the other hand, the media outlet Proactive mentioned in their headline that it may be “time to put everything on Bitcoin.” Despite brushing the headline as sarcasm within the content of the article, the author highlighted that a majority of institutional investors are looking to put an end to the current crypto winter. Meanwhile, the Australian news website news.com.au has highlighted experts speaking positively on Bitcoin and blockchain’s use cases. Some experts even predicted that the BTC price might eventually hit a new all-time high of $100,000. Related: Crypto baffles mainstream media, but should blockchain advocates care?Meanwhile, as the British pound hit a new all-time low against the US dollar, Bitcoin’s limited supply could potentially give it an advantage against the pound. According to the finance site Porkopolis Economics, the issuance rate of the pound has been 11.2% annually since 1970 while BTC has a rate of 1.7%. This gives BTC a significantly lower supply issuance and this could potentially widen the gap between the two currencies. Bitcoin’s price is not the only crypto scoop that made it to the mainstream media spotlight recently. Earlier in September, mainstream media outlets also put their sights on Ethereum and its recent transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism.

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Bitcoin sees first difficulty drop in 2 months as miners sell 8K BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) miners remain under stress at current price levels as data shows large outflows from miner wallets returning.As per on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, monthly miner sales totaled up to around 8,000 BTC in September.Bitcoin miners see heavy salesIn contrast to the June lows, when BTC/USD hit its current multi-year floor of $17,600, miners are currently selling considerable amounts of BTC.According to Glassnode, which tracks the 30-day change in miner balances, at the start of the month, miners were down a maximum 8,650 BTC over the month prior.Bitcoin miner net position change chart. Source: GlassnodeWhile this subsequently reduced, taking into account changes in the BTC price, miners are still selling more than they earn on a rolling monthly basis.As of Sep. 29, the latest date for which complete data is available, miners were down a combined 3,455 BTC over 30 days — nonetheless capping a 1-month low in exchange transactions, Glassnode noted.Bitcoin miners to exchange flow chart. Source: Glassnode/ TwitterThe miner squeeze even caught the attention of mainstream media this week, with Reuters describing the sector as “stuck in a bear pit.”“Bitcoin miners have continued to watch margins compress — the price of bitcoin has fallen, mining difficulty has risen, and energy prices have soared,” the publication quoted Joe Burnett, head analyst at mining firm Blockware, as saying.With BTC/USD forecast to potentially drop even more in line with global macroeconomic strife, miners could face additional hurdles to come.This would further stress an essential component of the Bitcoin ecosystem which just in August ended a “capitulation” phase to claw back some profitability.Difficulty comes off record highsSigns of change are evident in current network fundamentals numbers.At the latest automated adjustment on Sep. 28, Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased by 2.14% — its first decline since July.Related: More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernationThe metric, which provides multiple insights into network operation and miner buoyancy, was previously at all-time highs.In two weeks’ time, however, the uptrend is estimated to resume, with the ultimate result dependent on price action in the meantime.Similarly, the Bitcoin network hash rate is currently circling slightly lower levels than recent peaks, nonetheless still near all-time highs of its own, according to combined data from BTC.com and MiningPoolStats.Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.comThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin profitability for long-term holders decline to 4-year low: Data

Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term profitability has declined to levels last seen during the previous bear market in December 2018. According to data shared by crypto analytic firm Glassnode, BTC holders are selling their tokens at an average loss of 42%.Bitcoin long term holders. Source: GlassnodeThe Glassnode data indicate that long-term holders of the top cryptocurrency selling their tokens have a cost basis of $32,000, meaning the average buying price for these holders selling their stack is above $30,000.The current market downturn added to the declining profitability can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors. The BTC market still has a heavy correlation with the stock market, especially tech stocks, which are currently seeing an even bigger downtrend than crypto.The rising inflation added to central banks’ failure to control it has also added to the pain of BTC investors. With much less to invest at their hands, traders and long-term holders are shifting to short-term profitability and less risky assets.This was evident from the BTC miner sell-offs as well, BTC miners have historically been long-term holders in anticipation of a higher profit. However, the rise in energy costs, added to growing mining difficulty, has narrowed the profit margins of these miners, forcing them to settle for short-term profits.Related: US Treasury yields are soaring, but what does it mean for markets and crypto?Bitcoin miner balance has seen large outflows since prices were rejected from the local high of $24.5 thousand, suggesting aggregate miner profitability is still under a degree of stress. While the miner outflow has ranged between 3,000-8,000 BTC, however, market data indicate that a price decline to $18,000 could lead to a monthly outflow of 8,000 BTC. Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency, is currently trading in the $19,000-$20,000 range, struggling to conquer the $20,000 resistance despite multiple breakouts above it in the month of September.Bitcoin miner’s net position change Source: GlassnodeThe long-term holder profitability added with miner profitability has reached a multi-year low. However, the levels are quite similar to when the crypto market bottomed out during previous cycles.Bitcoin is currently trading in the $19,000-$20,000 range, struggling to conquer the $20,000 resistance despite multiple breakouts above it in the month of September. The top cryptocurrency is currently trading at a 70% discount from its market top of $68,789 posted in November last year. 

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Bitcoin price due ‘big dump’ after passing $20K, warns trader

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to intraday resistance on Sep. 30 as analysis predicted that $20,000 could break before a new comedown.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewCrunch time for $20,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it circled $19,600 at the time of writing.The pair had seen a bout of more volatile behavior the day prior, briefly losing $19,000 before bid support took the market higher.The day looked to be an important one for bulls, with the monthly close combining with European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Geopolitical events involving Russia’s official annexation of Ukrainian territory and associated implications were also on traders’ radar. Russian president Vladimir Putin was expected to speak at a ceremony during which he would formally ratify four Ukrainian regions joining Russia.“Today is the day,” Il Capo of Crypto declared, referencing Bitcoin’s next squeeze higher which should turn to losses thereafter.He continued that the price action would likely take the form of a “pump to 20000-20500 before Putin’s speech. Then big dump.”In a potentially more optimistic take, market analysis outfit IncomeSharks argued that bears had recently become less confident shorting BTC.“Bitcoin selling pressure has slowed a lot,” it told Twitter followers on Sep. 29. “It’s amazing how quickly we can see moves up now. It use to feel like it was weighted down. Now it feels like the wind blows and it moves. Bears seem a little more cautious shorting, a shift from the euohoria they were experiencing.”On the day, meanwhile, IncomeSharks noted that United States equities futures were gathering upside momentum, allowing for price relief across correlated crypto markets.“$SPX futures pushing up. Markets have flip flopped almost every other day this week. Bulls holding support with strength,” it summarized.S&P 500 futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewGrim day for European economic dataIn Europe, the picture was less enticing, as CPI readings for Eurozone member states made for eye-watering reading.Related: Bitcoin ‘great detox’ could trigger a BTC price drop to $12K: ResearchGerman CPI came out at the highest ever recorded at 10%, reaching double figures for the first time since World War II, markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz noted.Eurozone combined inflation data for September was due for release on the day but still expected at the time of writing. The figures will cap a tumultuous week for Europe, which saw the Bank of England return to quantitative easing (QE) by buying bonds to avert a meltdown in the United Kingdom.For Bitcoiners responding, it was only a matter of time before other central banks followed suit. “A virus starts in one host and moves on quickly to the next,” Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives trading platform BitMEX, wrote at the time. “YCC coming to a local pub near you. All central bankers think and act alike. If it’s happening in the UK, your banana republic is next. $BTC is Lord Satoshi’s cure.”Hayes referenced the yield curve control, or YCC, policy tool used by central banks, something he believes will also become inevitable in the future.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Researchers allege Bitcoin’s climate impact closer to ‘digital crude’ than gold

The Bitcoin (BTC) bashing has continued unabated even in the depths of a bear market with more research questioning its energy usage and impact on the environment.The latest paper by researchers at the department of economics at the University of New Mexico, published on Sept. 29, alleges that from a climate-damage perspective, Bitcoin operates more like “digital crude” than “digital gold.”The research attempts to estimate the energy-related climate damage caused by proof-of-work Bitcoin mining and make comparisons to other industries. It alleges that between 2016 and 2021, on average each $1 in BTC market value created was responsible for $0.35 in global “climate damages,” adding:“Which as a share of market value is in the range between beef production and crude oil burned as gasoline, and an order-of-magnitude higher than wind and solar power.”The researchers conclude that the findings represent “a set of red flags for any consideration as a sustainable sector,” adding that it is very unlikely that the Bitcoin network will become sustainable by switching to proof-of-stake.“If the industry doesn’t shift its production path away from POW, or move towards POS, then this class of digitally scarce goods may need to be regulated, and delay will likely lead to increasing global climate damages.”Recently, Lachlan Feeney, the founder, and CEO of Australian-based blockchain development agency Labrys told Cointelegraph after the Merge that “the pressure is on” Bitcoin to justify the PoW system over the long term.There are always counter comparisons and arguments, however. The University of Cambridge currently reports that the Bitcoin network currently consumes 94 terawatt hours (TWh) per year. To put this into context, all of the refrigerators in the United States alone consume more than the entire BTC network at 104 TWh per year.Furthermore, transmission and distribution electricity losses in the U.S. alone are 206 TWh per year which could power the Bitcoin network 2.2 times over. Cambridge also reports that the Bitcoin network power demand has decreased by 28% since mid-June. This is likely due to miner capitulations during the bear market and more efficient mining hardware being adopted.Related: Nic Carter takes aim at claims Bitcoin is an environmental disasterThere is also the argument that more mining is now carried out with renewable energy, especially in the U.S. which has seen an influx of mining firms since China’s ban.Earlier this month, former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor slammed ‘misinformation and propaganda’ regarding the energy usage of the Bitcoin network. He pointed out that metrics show almost 60% of energy for BTC mining comes from sustainable sources and energy efficiency improved by 46% year on year.Texas, which has become a mining mecca in recent years, is one example where renewables reign — it is the largest producer of wind power in the United States. Several mining operations have also been set up to use excess or otherwise wasted energy such as gas flaring. In August, Cointelegraph also reported that sustainable energy usage for BTC mining has grown nearly 60% in a year so it is not all doom and gloom.

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